Video: is the world getting better or worse?

If you spend any amount of time reading the news, you would be forgiven for thinking that the world is getting worse. Yet do the headlines truly reflect the reality on the ground? In his fascinating TED Talk, psychologist Stephen Pinker takes a serious look at the data to help us understand humanity’s direction of travel.

One notable quote stands out in the talk, from Franklin Pierce Adams: “Nothing is more responsible for the good old days than bad memory.” In short, it is easy for humanity to nostalgically reminisce about previous times when everything seemed safer, cleaner, and more egalitarian. Yet our human psychology leads us, often, to delude ourselves.

To address this problem in our memories, it is essential to use data to help determine whether the world is getting better or worse. This helps to reveal some interesting, perhaps surprising insights. For instance, 30 years ago there were 23 ongoing wars and 37% of the world population was in extreme poverty. Today, the figures are 12 and 10%, respectively.

Today, there are 50,000 fewer nuclear weapons than there were 30 years ago. Yet do these statistics just show that 1988 was an especially bad year? Is there a trend showing humanity’s moral trajectory? Fortunately, there are encouraging signals here, too.

For most of humanity’s history, the average lifespan was 30 years old. Today, it stands closer to 70 (or, 80 in more developed global areas). Around 250 years ago, one-third of children did not live to the age of 5. Today, the risk is down one-hundred-fold. 200 years ago, 90% of the world lived in extreme poverty. Now, fewer than 10% do.

Wars are less frequent and deadly in the 21st century. Major powers and empires have not fought each other in decades. Two-thirds of the world’s population now live in democracies, despite recent rises in authoritarianism in certain countries (e.g., Russia and Venezuela).

There is much to be encouraged by in this great TED Talk by Pinker. We heartily recommend this great TED Talk to give you a moral lift and motivate you to spur all of us on further towards better things – for our children and future generations.