Same as Ever: Timeless Lessons on Risk, Opportunity, and Living a Good Life is a compelling collection of 23 short stories about human flaws, patterns, and behaviour. Written by the prominent author and businessman Morgan Housel, the book is a valuable contribution to the discussion about how we can all make better choices with our finances and lifestyles.
At the heart of Same As Ever, Housel argues that the best decisions are based on timeless principles of wisdom, rather than trying to predict the future. What are those, exactly? Without spoiling the book, here we select three lessons to give readers an idea.
Lesson one is to base decisions in light of past human behaviour rather than wild guesses about what “might happen”. Think of recent unexpected events such as COVID-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas War. Nobody could have predicted these outcomes, yet the responses of humans to all three are easy to predict based on similar outcomes in history. For instance, fear, greed, opportunity and social persuasion. By internalising this insight, readers can gain a clearer insight into how events are likely to unfold – preparing accordingly.
“The behaviours that never change are history’s most powerful lessons because they preview what to expect in the future.”
The second lesson is pertinent to investors. It states that markets are more swayed by stories (“narratives”) than by hard statistics. Finally, lesson three states that certain lessons never fully “sink in” until we have experienced them. An example of this is Combat Veteran Kelsi Sheren, an artillery gunner who left Canada at 19 years old to fight the Taliban in Afghanistan. In her book, Brass and Unity, she describes how she journeyed from an idealist to a realist who was discharged with PTSD. Only by seeing the horrors of war, first-hand, could she truly learn about the realities of battle and how to work through flashbacks.
Hopefully, most of us will never need to learn Sheren’s lessons. However, we are likely to encounter “outsized success” or lose significant sums of money. Morgan Housel reassures us that it is normal to make mistakes. This often occurs because what is “true in theory” often feels different in the “reality of the moment.” However, the key is to try to bridge the gap between them by examining past mistakes and how to avoid repeating them in the future.
Overall, Same As Ever is a helpful examination of important questions that are often overlooked in discussions about the future. For instance, many people ask, “What will be different in the future?” Yet Housel would likely ask,” What will be the same 10 years or 100 years from now?” Having a firm grounding in timeless principles will be more reassuring and helpful than trying to predict an unknowable future. We commend this book to you!
